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In demand construction projects but not airports in demand; Many unprofitable airports with over optimistic forecast come to light

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check in countersNo use crying over spilled milk now, I must say. “You build it so they will come” and so that investors will flood the door when infrastructure is in place. Who are to be blamed? Those who hope to profit from the economic benefit an airport are just as guilty, don’t just blame it on the salesman, the people in the office who decided the construction of the airport. However they will not sleep well every night without being pricked by guilt.

Ibaraki Airport now officially recognised as the 98th airport opened in Japan, has been making headlines for the past few months prior to its opening, with everyone’s questioning its very existance, the need for its construction. It opened at a tough time when bad news are pouring everywhere and after the bankruptcy of Japan Airlines, largest Airlines in Asia, whose main reasons contributing to its failure were believed to be from over expanding too quickly and relation with the past administration, often being pressured to operate from several airports that could hardly able to fill enough passengers on its flight.

With a new JAL, from now on being closely watched by the public and tendency to be scrutinized for one small mistake, it quickly turned down the offer when asked to consider flying into Ibaraki airport. No question asked. JAL’s rival, ANA, rejected using Ibaraki airport too. This explained why Ibaraki airport opened on the 11th of this month with only one single regular flight at opening and one domestic flight to commence a month later after opening.

No one would expect this to have happened. Those numbers were looking so promising and everyone thought the plan will take off. Again unfortunately the numbers were bloated to trick people into believing that decisions were not wrongly made. It is done so so that it will allow for multi-million dollars construction works to be passed. Not realizing that what is in demand are construction projects but not airports.

The transport ministry has released some number last week pointing why Japan has too many unprofitable airports. Of the results taken from a total of 75 airports, only 8 could beat its forecast, exceeding demand.

Actual demand for the use of airports is a far cry from its forecast, especially in many Prefectural airports. See figures below for the list of airports. Falling population and weak GDP are contributing factors apart from overly optimistic forecast and bad calculations.

Airport Forecasted (unit: 10,000pax) Actual usage (Yr’08) Usage rate (%)
Primary airports
New Chitose 1660 1652 99%
Wakkanai 71 19 28%
Kushiro 158 78 49%
Asahikawa 111 124 112%
Obihiro 133 61 46%
Akita 130 115 88%
Sendai 279 269 96%
Narita 261 113 43%
Haneda 6124 6319 103%
Niigata 124 84 68%
Centrair 710 583 82%
Kansai 1213 522 43%
Hiroshima 298 283 95%
Yamaguchi-ube 118 85 72%
Takamatsu 287 142 50%
Matsuyama 413 249 60%
Kouchi 271 130 48%
Fukuoka 1610 1478 92%
KitaKyushu 283 119 42%
Nagasaki 180 244 136%
Kumamoto 181 301 167%
Oita 180 168 93%
Miyazaki 854 288 34%
Kagoshima 563 535 95%
Naha 1240 1460 118%
Prefectural managed airports
Rishiri 14 3 21%
Okushiri 7 1 15%
Nakashibetsu 51 18 34%
Monbetsu 37 5 13%
Aomori 160 88 55%
Hanamaki 83 35 42%
Odate-Noshiro 72 13 17%
Shonai 31 39 128%
Fukushima 142 35 25%
Ooshima 17 7 41%
Niijima 5 3 49%
Kouzujima 5 2 37%
Hachijojima 31 20 66%
Noto 39 16 41%
Matsuyama 36 6 17%
Shizuoka (newly constructed) 106 N.A. N.A.
Kobe 319 258 81%
NankiShirahama 19 15 79%
Tottori 71 31 43%
Oki 27 5 18%
Izumo 79 75 95%
Hagi-Iwami 51 7 13%
Okayama 104 123 119%
Saga 81 30 37%
Ogika 6 0 0%
Kamigotou 9 0 0%
Tanegashima 33 9 26%
AmamiOshima 131 56 42%
Okinoerabu 13 9 65%
Kumejima 46 25 55%
Kerama 6 0 0%
Minamidaitou 7 4 54%
Satadaitou 2 2 71%
Miyakojima 126 108 85%
Tarama 5 3 59%
Shin-Ishigaki 202 N.A. N.A.
Yonaguni 8 8 95%
Shared airports/Others
Chofu 6 6 94%
Nagoya 38 41 109%
Tajima 5 3 55%
Hiroshima Nishi 33 6 17%
Amakusa 6 6 94%
Ooita Kenou 2 0 0%
Okurazaki 4 0 0%
Chitose 248 0 0%
Ibaraki (newly constructed) 70 N.A. N.A.
Yonago 70 45 64%
Tokushima 106 82 77%
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